Gustav Discussion ?

[One Country Boy]

Gustav covers a large area. The below overlays are from "Intellicast".

In the panhandle of Florida we will soon begin to experience rain bands. The center is miles from us. I know "TXiceman" is in the forecast cone. I'm sure there are other members of ORR that have to be near or in the cone. I wonder what your plans are ? Would like to hear from you.

Thanks !

[Radio]

A seasoned forecaster is apparently awstruck by the rapid strenghening of Gustav...note the boldfaced comment in the report below (boldface font added by me for clarity, not in original report)

:jitter:


WTNT42 KNHC 301823
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE
THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME. THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING
BEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141
KT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS
RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN
MADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH
96 HOURS. GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY
BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140
KT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1800Z 21.6N 82.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 135 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Radio]

My email box is finding more reports, three or four a day now from Georgia Baptist Disaster Relief ratcheting up their operational status, calling for volunteers and all that.

Members were advised today NOT to operate independantly (as some are tempted to do) until we know the extent of Gustav damage and try to figure out what Hanna is going to do. The point being folks from TN or MO (for example) may respond to Gustav and the GA boys held in reserve in case Hanna takes out Florida.

[Andy N1ORK]

Every now and then, I listen to 14.325mhz (the Hurricane net) and 14.300 (MaritimeNet) to get updates. Does anyone know where there are other storm related nets?
Thanks
Andy - n1ork

[One Country Boy]

There is a Gulf Coast Hurricane Net on 75 and/or 40 meters. I'll see if I can find those freqs.

The Baptist Group do a heck of a job Wade. I remember them feeding hundreds of people in the town I used to live in after Hurricane Kate in 1985. There was another storm also, but I don't recall the name.

[Andy N1ORK]

Found this on the eHAM.net site:


03845.0 LSB Gulf Coast West Hurricane
03862.5 LSB Mississippi Section Traffic
03873.0 LSB Central Gulf Coast Hurricane
03873.0 LSB Louisiana ARES Emergency (night)
03873.0 LSB Texas ARES Emergency (night)
03873.0 LSB Mississippi ARES Emergency
03910.0 LSB Mississippi ARES
03910.0 LSB Louisiana Traffic
03923.0 LSB Mississippi ARES
03925.0 LSB Central Gulf Coast Hurricane
03925.0 LSB Louisiana Emergency (altn)
03935.0 LSB Central Gulf Coast Hurricane
03935.0 LSB Louisiana ARES (health & welfare)
03935.0 LSB Texas ARES (health & welfare)
03935.0 LSB Mississippi ARES (health & welfare)
03935.0 LSB Alabama Emergency
03940.0 LSB Southern Florida Emergency
03950.0 LSB Northern Florida Emergency
03955.0 LSB South Texas Emergency
03965.0 LSB Alabama Emergency (altn)
03967.0 LSB Gulf Coast (outgoing traffic)
03975.0 LSB Texas RACES
03993.5 LSB Gulf Coast (health & welfare)
03995.0 LSB Gulf Coast Wx

07225.0 LSB Central Gulf Coast Hurricane
07235.0 LSB Louisiana Emergency
07235.0 LSB Central Gulf Coast Hurricane
07235.0 LSB Louisiana Emergency
07240.0 LSB American Red Cross US Gulf Coast Disaster
07240.0 LSB Texas Emergency
07243.0 LSB Alabama Emergency
07245.0 LSB Southern Louisiana
07248.0 LSB Texas RACES
07250.0 LSB Texas Emergency
07260.0 LSB Gulf Coast West Hurricane
07264.0 LSB Gulf Coast (health & welfare)
07265.0 LSB Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio (SATERN) (altn)
07273.0 LSB Texas ARES (altn)
07280.0 LSB NTS Region 5
07280.0 LSB Louisiana Emergency (altn)
07283.0 LSB Gulf Coast (outgoing only)
07285.0 LSB West Gulf ARES Emergency (day)
07285.0 LSB Louisiana ARES Emergency (day)
07285.0 LSB Mississippi ARES Emergency
07285.0 LSB Texas ARES Emergency (day)
07290.0 LSB Central Gulf Coast Hurricane
07290.0 LSB Gulf Coast Wx
07290.0 LSB Texas ARES (health & welfare)
07290.0 LSB Louisiana ARES (health & welfare) (day)
07290.0 LSB Texas ARES (health & welfare)
07290.0 LSB Mississippi ARES (health & welfare) 14265.0 USB Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio(SATERN) (health & welfare)

14300.0 USB Intercontinental Traffic
14300.0 USB Maritime Mobile Service
14303.0 USB International Assistance & Traffic
14313.0 USB Intercontinental Traffic (altn)
14313.0 USB Maritime Mobile Service (altn)
14316.0 USB Health & Welfare
14320.0 USB Health & Welfare
14325.0 USB Hurricane Watch (Amateur-to-National Hurricane Center)
14340.0 USB Louisiana (1900)

[Radio]

There is a Gulf Coast Hurricane Net on 75 and/or 40 meters. I'll see if I can find those freqs.

The Baptist Group do a heck of a job Wade. I remember them feeding hundreds of people in the town I used to live in after Hurricane Kate in 1985. There was another storm also, but I don't recall the name.

:thanks:

Let's hope you have no further memories of the great job these fine folks do.
If you get my meaning...:poke:

[One Country Boy]

This is interesting. Sure covers a large area of the Southeastern US.

From the NHC:

[Radio]

The Georgia Red Cross and GA ARES have activated their nets and are opening shelters in west central GA at his time. Some shelters are already accepting guests.

[One Country Boy]

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http://www.vuetoo.com/vue1/Situationpagenews.asp?sit=1715 (http://www.vuetoo.com/vue1/Situationpagenews.asp?sit=1715)
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http://www.emergencyemail.org/weatherradarmap2.asp (http://www.emergencyemail.org/weatherradarmap2.asp)
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[Radio]

Huricane Watch Net will be active at 0800 EDT (1200UTC) Monday morning.

http://www.hwn.org

[One Country Boy]

000
Wtnt42 Knhc 010257
Tcdat2
Hurricane Gustav Discussion Number 30
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al072008
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 31 2008

The Satellite Presentation Of Gustav Became More Symmetric Earlier
In The Evening And Was Giving The Impression Of Increasing
Organization. Over The Past Hour Or So...however...there Has Been
Slight Warming Of The Core Convection In The Eastern Semicircle.
The Central Pressure...which Had Been Falling...seems To Have
Stabilized With The Most Recent Estimate Being 954 Mb. Flight Level
And Sfmr Data Indicate That The Maximum Surface Winds Are Still
Around 100 Kt...with A Peak Smfr Wind Of 100 Kt Just Observed A Few
Minutes Ago...and Peak Flight Level Winds Of 114 Kt. The Sfmr Data
Also Indicate That The Hurricane Force Winds Have Expanded...
Spreading Out The Pressure Gradient Over A Larger Area. Dropsonde
Data From The Noaa G-iv Jet Aircraft Also Show Some Drier Air
Between 300 And 500 Mb Working Its Way Toward The Center Of Gustav
From The South. These Data Suggest That The Landfall Intensity Of
Gustav Will Likely Be Not Very Different From Its Current Category
Three Strength. None Of The Available Objective Aids...the
Gfdl...hwrf...ships...and Lgem Show Much Change In The Remaining
Time Gustav Has Over Water.

The Initial Motion Is 315/14. There Has Been No Change To The Track
Forecast Philosophy That Shows Gustav Moving Northwestward Between
A Mid- To Upper-level Low In The Western Gulf Of Mexico And
Mid-level High Pressure Over The Ohio Valley. Model Guidance Is
Very Tightly Clustered Around The Previous Official Forecast
Through 48 Hours And The New Forecast Is Just About Right On Top Of
The Previous One. After That...as Southwesterly Shear Is Forecast
To Increase...the Models Diverge Sharply. As Before...the Official
Forecast Calls For Little Motion After 72 Hours In The Expectation
That Gustav Will Shear Off...in Good Agreement With The Shallow Bam.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 01/0300z 27.3n 88.1w 100 Kt
12hr Vt 01/1200z 28.6n 89.9w 105 Kt
24hr Vt 02/0000z 30.1n 91.9w 85 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 02/1200z 31.1n 93.3w 50 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 03/0000z 31.8n 94.3w 30 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 04/0000z 32.0n 95.0w 25 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 05/0000z 32.0n 95.5w 25 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 06/0000z 32.0n 96.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[One Country Boy]

HURRICANE GUSTAV NEARING THE LOUISIANA COAST.

AT 400 AM CDT.THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH.LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 230 MILES SW OF DESTIN. GUSTAV HAS ALREADY MADE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE PANHANDLE COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW NEAR 16 MPH.& THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY
TODAY.


MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MIN
CNTL PRESSURE OF 956 MB.28.23 INCHES.

___________________

I guess she's gone passed us. The barometer reads 29.57 here. Fay was lower than that when she passed the other day.

God bless them folks in Louisianna, Mississippi and Texas.

[Radio]

Part of an email I received from Southern Baptist Disaster Relief the day before Gustav came ashore...

Southern Baptist liaisons are located at the National Headquarters
for American Red Cross and the Department of Homeland Security, Federal
Emergency Management Agency in Washington, D. C. They will assist in providing
close coordination and communication with these agencies. American Red Cross has
also provided a liaison to the North American Mission Board’s Disaster
Operation Center (DOC) located in Alpharetta, Ga.

Meals are currently being prepared by Southern Baptist Feeding Units
at shelters housing evacuees in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky,
Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and, Texas. Chaplains are serving with the
Feeding Units to provide ministry and support for the evacuees and volunteers.

A combined capacity of more than 575,000 meals per day has been
activated and has begun moving toward the anticipated impact area. A total of 39
Feeding Units from 23 Baptist state conventions are moving toward the central
Gulf Coast and are expected to arrive over the next three days. Each Feeding
Unit will be accompanied by chainsaw, communication, and shower units as well as
Disaster Relief trained chaplains. A conservative estimate is that more than
4,000 Southern Baptist volunteers will be traveling with these units.

******

When you hear on TV that the Red Cross served xx-thousand meals during a disaster, 90% of the meals are prepared by Baptists, with Lutherans, Catholics and Mormons rounding up the rest. The Red Cross does provide all of the food by various means.

May you never require their services...although the food ain't bad...