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Old 09-06-2008, 08:02 AM   #1
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Exclamation "IKE" - Watches, warnings and advisories

Information from The National Hurricane Center:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061153
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335
KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...22.0 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME



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Old 09-06-2008, 05:52 PM   #2
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Default Hurricane Ike Advisory Number 23 - 500 Pm Ast Sat Sep 06 2008

THE FOLLOWING FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM
...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN



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Old 09-07-2008, 07:43 AM   #3
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Default Hurricane Ike Intermediate Advisory Number 25a

INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071144
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE HEADING FOR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS....

AT 800 AM...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...
CAMAGUEY AND CIEGO DE AVILA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR JUST EAST OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN



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Old 09-08-2008, 08:22 AM   #4
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Exclamation Hurricane Ike Intermediate Advisory Number 29a

FOLLOWING INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE HITTING CUBA HARD...EYE OF OVER CAMAGUEY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE PROVINCES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35
KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGHOUT CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA



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Old 09-09-2008, 05:39 AM   #5
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Exclamation Hurricane Ike Advisory Number 33 - 500 Am Edt Tue Sep 09 2008

THE FOLLOWING INFO FROM THE NATTIONAL HURRICANE CANTER:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090857
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED IN HAVANA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS EAST OF THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND
SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER WESTERN CUBA
TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHEN IKE
REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM. THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT CASABLANCA
HAVANA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. KEY
WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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Old 09-10-2008, 07:56 AM   #6
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Exclamation Hurricane Ike Intermediate Advisory Number 37a

THE FOLLOWING INFO FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



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Old 09-11-2008, 07:44 AM   #7
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Exclamation Ike Intermediate Advisory Number 41a 700 Am Cdt Thu Sep 11 2008

Following info from the National Hurricane Center:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111152
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...920
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



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Old 09-11-2008, 11:07 PM   #8
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Default Hurricane Ike Advisory Number 44 - 1000 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 11 2008

Data from the National Hurricane Center:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES
...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG



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Old 09-12-2008, 07:41 AM   #9
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Exclamation Intermediate Advisory Number 45a - 700 Am Cdt Fri Sep 12 2008

Info from The National Hurricane Center:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH...176 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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Old 09-15-2008, 06:34 AM   #10
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Default Public Advisory Number 56 For Remnants Of Ike

Data from the NHC (EDITED):

000
WTNT34 KWNH 150754
TCPAT4

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 56 FOR REMNANTS OF IKE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL092008
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...REMNANTS OF IKE RACING NORTHEAST...
...CORRECTION TO ADD MULTI-DAY OKLAHOMA TOTALS AND REMOVE PEACE
RIVER OBSERVATION IN TEXAS DUE TO A SUSPICIOUS REPORT...

FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST
INDIANA...AND MICHIGAN. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE MOST CURRENT
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 1000 PM CDT...03Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8
NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST...OR 135 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROCHESTER NY...OR 70 MILES NORTH OF TORONTO CANADA. THE LOW IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH OR 80 KM/HR.

THE LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD...ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...INTO LABRADOR LATE
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS OF 40
MPH...64 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 986 MB...OR 29.11
INCHES.

SELECTED HIGH WIND REPORTS SINCE 700 AM SUNDAY

LOUISVILLE KY 75 MPH
COVINGTON KY 74 MPH
HUNTINGBURG IN 67 MPH
FORT KNOX KY 64 MPH
OWENSBORO KY 63 MPH
WALNUT RIDGE AR 62 MPH
POPULAR BLUFF MO 61 MPH
CINCINNATI/LUNKIN 61 MPH


SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1000 PM
CDT

...LOUISIANA...

CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR GLENMORA 7.62
DENHAM SPRINGS 6.8N 5.78
AMITE RIVER AT GRANGEVILLE 4.98
OUISKA CHITTO CREEK NEAR OBERLIN 4.54
BAYOU COCODRIE NEAR CLEARWATER 4.27
NATCHITOCHES 3.69
GRAND ENCORE 3.77
JONESBORO 3.45
WEST MONROE 4.1 NW 4.42
ANACOCO 13.7 SW 2.75
ALEXANDRIA 5SSE 2.93
CLEARWATER 2.91
ELMER 2SW 2.87
MONROE 2.45

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON 15.75
SPRING BRANCH (HARRIS COUNTY) 15.20
CYPRESS CREEK (HARRIS COUNTY) 14.21
HALLS BAYOU (HARRIS COUNTY) 13.94
CONROE 4S 13.55
PANTHER BRIDE NEAR SPRING 13.14
WESTFIELD 6W 12.72
NECHES RIVER AT EVADALE 12.53
EVADALE 12.32
COLE CREEK AT DEIHL ROAD 11.03
HOUSTON - C.R. RD BHG 10.95
HARRIS GULLEY (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.71
GOOSE CREEK (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.39
HUMBLE 2N 10.39
BUFFALO BAYOU (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.12
CLEVELAND (SITE 2) 10.01
MOUNT CALM 4E 9.84
HOUSTON 9.49
BUNKER HILL 1SW 9.46
ADDICKS - SO. MAYDE CK 9.22
HOUSTON - COLE CK DEIHL RD 9.21
SPRING 3NW 9.20
HOUSTON - BRAYS BAYOU S MAIN ST 9.14
HOUSTON 9.02
HOUSTON-LANGHAM [email protected] YORK R 8.89
JERSEY VILLAGE 8.74
PASADENA 1NE 8.35

...ARKANSAS...

BIG FORK 2ENE 5.09
EUREKA SPRINGS 4.51
ATHENS 4.51
BERRYVILLE 5NW 4.07
WINSLOW 10WSW 3.97
WINFREY 3.82
BEAVER DAM-WHITE RIVER 3.76
DEER 3.73

...MISSOURI...

CLINTON 0.9 NNW 8.93
KIRKSVILLE 8.14
CLINTON 7.56
COLOMA 7.56
HOUSTON 4.5 WSW 7.41
COLUMBIA 3.6SW 7.19
NEVADA 2.3 WNW 7.11
DOWNING 6.93
SAVERTON - LOCK & DAM 22 TW 6.92
ASHLAND 0.7 WNW 6.86
WINDSOR 6.73
TROY 6.63
BRUSH CREEK AT WARD PARKWAY KC 6.46
GREEN RIDGE 0.3 NNW 6.61
RUSSELLVILLE 5.9 SE 6.02
OFALLON 5.84

...KANSAS...

MAIZE 5.7S 11.44
UDALL 4.2 ENE 11.02
PLYMOUTH 1SW 10.26
LEON 7.5 SW 10.01
WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPT 9.56
PARK CITY 3.0 WSW 9.18
EMPORIA 5.5 NNE 9.08
EL DORADO 7.9 NNW 8.90
SMILEYBERG 8.88
ROSE HILL 2.7 ESE 8.39
AUGUSTA 1WNW 8.36
EL DORADO 4NE - DAM (INACT) 8.03
ROCK 7.95
EL DORADO (CITY WATER PLANT) 7.79
NEOSHO RAPIDS 7.59
AUGUSTA 7.42
THRALL 4S 7.38
ROSALIA 7.25
MADISON 6.80

...OKLAHOMA...(HIGHER TOTALS OVER 5 IN INCLUDE PRE-IKE RAINFALL)

FAIRVIEW 11.83
ORIENTA 1 SSW 10.45
HELENA 1 SSE 9.95
MUTUAL 8.76
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE 8.58
PUTNAM 3 N 7.86
SEILING 3 N 7.59
MEDFORD 7.54
CAMARGO 4 WNW 6.62
WAYNOKA 5 S 6.25
CHEROKEE 5.83
MOORELAND 0.4 ESE 5.82
ALVA 1 NE 5.43
SAYRE 5.8 NW 4.66
KANSAS 1ESE 4.56
DRAKE FIELD 4.35
ERICK 0.2 NE 4.35
TALIHINA 3ENE 4.30
MAYO-L&D 14 4.22
NEW EUCHA 5W 4.11
GRANITE 0.6 WSW 4.08
ELDON 4.05
WINSLOW 7NE 4.01
MIAMI 4.00
COLCORD 4N 3.97
HINDSVILLE 3.85
DEVILS DEN STATE PARK 3.85


IOWA...

OAKLAND MILLS 3W 7.60
DONNELSON 7.07
MOUNT PLEASANT 7.04
BURLINGTON 6.5N 6.97
LONDON 1.5 SW 6.96
WAPELLO 6.71
KEOSAUQUA 6.06
FORT MADISON 5.54
LE CLAIRE 0.2 ESE 5.35
DAVENPORT 0.9 SSW 5.12
BEDFORD 1 NNW 5.11

...ILLINOIS...

PEOTONE 10.40
WHEATON 1.7N 9.36
ELBURN 0.4 NW 9.29

PARK RIDGE 9.15
ST CHARLES 9.03
SALT CREEK AT ROLLING MEADOWS 9.20
PARK FOREST 0.8 NNE 8.80
EVANSTON 1.4N 8.76
FERSON CREEK NEAR ST. CHARLES 8.74
ELK GROVE 8.74
BARTLETT 8.58
ST CHARLES 7NW 8.48
PAW PAW 8.38
DES PLAINES 0.5 NW 8.18
KEITHSBURG 7.98
BRADLEY 7.90
WEST CHICAGO 2.7N 7.89
MILL CREEK NEAR BATAVIA 7.72
KEWANEE 1E 7.59
CARBON HILL 3N 7.45
ROGERS PARK 7.37
CHICAGO O'HARE AIRPORT 7.25

...INDIANA...

PORTAGE 0.8 SW 11.46
SOUTH BEND 3.7 SE 10.94
CROWN POINT 3.1 WSW 10.83
VALPARAISO 1.3 SSW 9.78
HART DITCH AT DYER 8.33
LA PORTE 1.2 7.97
PORTER 0.8 E 7.84
SOUTH BEND 7.72
CHESTERTON 1.7 WSW 7.68
WESTVILLE 4.7 ESE 7.52
KINGSBURY 1N 6.59
VALPARAISO 5NNE 6.51
HART DITCH 5.87
WANATAH 5.18
SHOALS 4.99
LOWELL 4.48
GARY 3.64

...MICHIGAN...

SOUTH HAVEN 6.68
MARSHALL 6.32
BATTLE CREEK/W K KELLOGG AIRPORT 6.16
BLOOMINGDALE 5.92
BENTON HARBOR/SW MI RGNL APT 5.77
FARMINGTON HILLS 5.36
OKEMOS 5.22
KALAMAZOO INTL ARPT 4.57
JACKSON/REYNOLDS FIELD 4.47
BLOOMINGDALE 4.46
CLARKSTON 4.41
MARSHALL 4.25
BATTLE CREEK 4.17
TIPTON 2WNW 4.02
LUM 3.95

...OHIO..
MILL CREEK AT TYLERSVL RD FAIRFLD 7.08
NORWALK 2NW 4.51
LAGRANGE 1NE 4.39
WADSWORTH 1SW 3.79
ALLIANCE 3.64
MEDINA 2N 3.50
FOSTORIA (IFLOWS) 3.35
WEST BRANCH 3.17
FINDLAY AIRPORT 3.17
MEDINA 3.12
ELYRIA 4S 3.11
AKRON/FULTON INTL ARPT 2.97

...PENNSYLVANIA...
MURRYSVILLE 5.41
NEW KENSINGTON (IFLOWS) 4.17
ALLISON PARK 3ESE (IFLOWS) 3.79
WEST DEER PARK (IFLOWS) 3.56
ALLISON PARK 2NE (IFLOWS) 3.51
FERNWAY 2W 3.24
RACHELWOOD (IFLOWS) 3.11
NATRONA 3.11
ACMETONIA (LOCK 3) 2.92
SLIPPERY ROCK 1SSW 2.90
CONEMAUGH DAM 2.85
JEANNETTE 1NE (IFLOWS) 2.47

...WISCONSIN...

GENOA CITY 3.25
FRANKLINSVILLE 2.50
NWS SULLIVAN 2.37
HALES CORNERS 2.32
TWIN LAKES 2.18

...NEBRASKA...

FALLS CITY 2S 3.39
FALLS CITY 3.31
RULO 2W 3.00
SYRACUSE 2.92
SALEM 5SW 2.39
GRETNA 3NE 2.34
IRVINGTON 2.30
LINCOLN 3S 2.28
PAWNEE CITY 2.24
OMAHA - 125TH & FORT STS 2.14
PAPILLION 6NW 2.14
AUBURN 2.00


THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF
IKE INTO CANADA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM HALF
TO ONE INCH ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER FROM NEW YORK TO MAINE.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW YORK STATE...VERMONT....NEW
HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...44.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA...OR THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

PETERSEN

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 44.4N 79.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 15/1200Z 48.0N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 16/0000Z 51.3N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
$$



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Old 09-15-2008, 08:14 AM   #11
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It is amazing to me the power of these storms, to hold billions and billions of gallons of water, at 8.3 pounds each, in suspension for a thousand miles and more, sucking it up out of the Atlantic and the Gulf and dumping it all the way to Canada.

Wow. And people still refuse to run away from these things.
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